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Preparing data, scores, charts, and outlook text.
Global Macro Outlook AI
Macro intelligence MVP
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Preparing data, scores, charts, and outlook text.
Audit
Inspect every audit record with its value, source, date, status, formula, and methodology metadata.
Live data are fetched from external sources. Demo and fallback data are illustrative or backup values and should be verified before research or investment use.
Live data are fetched from external sources. Demo and fallback data are illustrative or backup values and should be verified before research or investment use.
| Indicator | Indicator ID | Country | Value | Unit | Frequency | Date/time period | Source | Source status | Endpoint | Series ID | Formula ID | Formula summary | Data status | Last updated | Quality warnings | Missing-data rule | Notes / limitations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Countries covered | COUNTRIES_COVERED | Global | N/A | count | static | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | COUNTRIES_COVERED_COUNT | Counts the country records registered in the shared country list. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| No runtime missing-data rule. If COUNTRIES is empty, the count is 0. | Count of COUNTRIES registered in constants.ts. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Average macro risk | AVERAGE_MACRO_RISK | Global | N/A | 0-100 score | mixed | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | AVERAGE_MACRO_RISK | Averages headline risk scores across all MVP countries. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| No explicit empty-country guard is defined in getGlobalDashboard(). | Mean of country overallRisk values, rounded to one decimal place. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Risk label | RISK_LABEL | All MVP countries | N/A | Low/Watch/Elevated/High | mixed | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | RISK_LABEL_THRESHOLDS | Maps numeric risk scores to display labels. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| No explicit missing score guard in riskLabel(); callers pass numeric scores. | Threshold label from riskLabel(): High >=75, Elevated >=55, Watch >=35, else Low. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Risk score bar width | RISK_SCORE_BAR_WIDTH | All MVP countries | N/A | % width | mixed | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | RISK_SCORE_BAR_WIDTH | Keeps the visual score bar visible with a minimum width of 5 percent and maximum of 100 percent. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| No explicit missing score guard; ScoreMeter receives numeric score props. | ScoreMeter displays bar width as Math.max(5, Math.min(score, 100)). Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Regime mix count | REGIME_MIX_COUNT | Global | N/A | country count | mixed | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | REGIME_MIX_COUNT | Counts how many countries are currently assigned to each regime. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| Only truthy country views are included after getAllCountryViews filters missing results. | Counts countries in each macro regime from dashboard country views. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Recent GDP average | GDP_AVERAGE_LATEST | All MVP countries | N/A | % y/y | annual | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | AVERAGE_LATEST | Averages the most recent observations for an indicator. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If no observations are available, averageLatest returns undefined. In scoring, GDP average falls back to latest GDP. | averageLatest(observations, GDP_GROWTH, 4); not displayed directly. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Unemployment change | UNEMPLOYMENT_DELTA | All MVP countries | N/A | percentage points | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | DELTA_OVER_WINDOW | Calculates the change between the latest value and a prior value over a configurable number of periods. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If latest or previous is missing, deltaOverWindow returns 0. | deltaOverWindow(observations, UNEMPLOYMENT, 4); not displayed directly. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| FX change versus USD | FX_USD_DELTA | All MVP countries | N/A | index-point change | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | DELTA_OVER_WINDOW | Calculates the change between the latest value and a prior value over a configurable number of periods. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If latest or previous is missing, deltaOverWindow returns 0. | deltaOverWindow(observations, FX_USD, 6); not displayed directly. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Oil price change | OIL_DELTA | U.S. demo commodity series | N/A | USD/bbl change | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | DELTA_OVER_WINDOW | Calculates the change between the latest value and a prior value over a configurable number of periods. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If latest or previous is missing, deltaOverWindow returns 0. | deltaOverWindow(observations, OIL, 6); not displayed directly. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Credit growth change | CREDIT_GROWTH_DELTA | All MVP countries | N/A | percentage points | quarterly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | DELTA_OVER_WINDOW | Calculates the change between the latest value and a prior value over a configurable number of periods. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If latest or previous is missing, deltaOverWindow returns 0. | deltaOverWindow(observations, CREDIT_GROWTH, 4); not displayed directly. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| FX reserves change | RESERVES_DELTA | All MVP countries | N/A | index-point change | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | DELTA_OVER_WINDOW | Calculates the change between the latest value and a prior value over a configurable number of periods. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If latest or previous is missing, deltaOverWindow returns 0. | deltaOverWindow(observations, RESERVES, 6); not displayed directly. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Inflation gap versus target | INFLATION_GAP | All MVP countries | N/A | percentage points | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | INFLATION_GAP | Measures how far CPI is above or below the country's policy target. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If CPI is missing in scoring, CPI falls back to country.inflationTarget. | CPI minus country inflation target; used in inflation pressure and commodity exposure. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Wage growth gap versus target | WAGE_GROWTH_GAP | All MVP countries | N/A | percentage points | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | WAGE_GROWTH_GAP | Treats wage growth more than one point above the inflation target as inflation pressure. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If WAGE_GROWTH is missing in scoring, wageGrowth falls back to CPI. | wageGrowth - inflationTarget - 1; used in inflation pressure. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Real policy rate | REAL_POLICY_RATE | U.S. highlighted; all countries in scoring | N/A | percentage points | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | REAL_POLICY_RATE | Subtracts inflation from the nominal policy-rate proxy. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| In scoring, missing policyRate falls back to 0 and missing CPI falls back to country.inflationTarget. On the central bank page, missing values fall back to 0. | policy rate minus CPI. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Yield-curve slope | YIELD_CURVE_SLOPE | U.S. highlighted; all countries in scoring | N/A | percentage points | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | YIELD_CURVE_SLOPE | Measures the spread between the 10-year yield and the policy rate. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| In scoring, missing yield10y falls back to policyRate, making the slope 0. On pages, missing values fall back to 0. | 10-year yield minus policy rate. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Nominal growth proxy | NOMINAL_GROWTH_PROXY | All MVP countries | N/A | % | mixed | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | NOMINAL_GROWTH_PROXY | Creates a positive lower-bounded nominal growth proxy for fiscal stress scoring. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| Missing GDP falls back to 0; missing CPI falls back to country.inflationTarget. | Math.max(GDP growth + CPI, 0.5); used in fiscal stress. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Nominal GDP growth | NOMINAL_GDP_GROWTH | U.S. highlighted | N/A | % | mixed | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | NOMINAL_GDP_GROWTH | Adds real GDP growth and inflation as a rough nominal growth proxy. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| Missing GDP or CPI falls back to 0 on the Fiscal Monitor page. | Fiscal page displays GDP growth plus CPI. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Debt arithmetic | DEBT_ARITHMETIC | U.S. highlighted | N/A | percentage points | mixed | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | DEBT_ARITHMETIC | Applies a simple r-g debt-dynamics identity using the available fiscal balance proxy. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| Missing debt, fiscal balance, nominal growth components, or policy rate fall back to 0 on the Fiscal Monitor page. | ((policy rate - nominal growth) / 100) * debt - fiscal balance. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Forecast method | FORECAST_METHOD | U.S. CPI currently | N/A | last/movingAverage/linearTrend | event | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | FORECAST_METHOD_BRANCH | Chooses which baseline formula is applied to the forecast series. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| generateForecast defaults method to movingAverage. | Forecast methods are defined in forecast.ts. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Forecast trend | FORECAST_TREND | U.S. CPI currently | N/A | indicator units per period | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | FORECAST_TREND | Estimates a simple recent trend from the latest value and a prior value. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If values are missing, lastValue defaults to 0 and priorValue falls back to first value or lastValue. If no latest observation exists, generateForecast returns an empty array before emitting points. | Derived internally from latest and prior values in forecast.ts; not displayed directly. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Forecast baseline | FORECAST_BASELINE | U.S. CPI currently | N/A | % y/y | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | LAST_OBSERVATION_FORECAST | Carries the latest observed value forward for each forecast period. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If the ordered series has no latest observation, generateForecast returns an empty array. | Displayed in forecast charts and latest baseline text. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Forecast optimistic scenario | FORECAST_OPTIMISTIC | U.S. CPI currently | N/A | % y/y | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | FORECAST_CONFIDENCE_BANDS | Creates widening illustrative bands around the forecast baseline. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If no latest observation exists, generateForecast returns an empty array. | Displayed as the optimistic forecast line. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Forecast pessimistic scenario | FORECAST_PESSIMISTIC | U.S. CPI currently | N/A | % y/y | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | FORECAST_CONFIDENCE_BANDS | Creates widening illustrative bands around the forecast baseline. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If no latest observation exists, generateForecast returns an empty array. | Displayed as the pessimistic forecast line. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Forecast lower band | FORECAST_LOWER_BAND | U.S. CPI currently | N/A | % y/y | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | FORECAST_CONFIDENCE_BANDS | Creates widening illustrative bands around the forecast baseline. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If no latest observation exists, generateForecast returns an empty array. | Displayed in the forecast confidence band. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Forecast upper band | FORECAST_UPPER_BAND | U.S. CPI currently | N/A | % y/y | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | FORECAST_CONFIDENCE_BANDS | Creates widening illustrative bands around the forecast baseline. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If no latest observation exists, generateForecast returns an empty array. | Displayed in the forecast confidence band. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Forecast confidence width | FORECAST_CONFIDENCE_WIDTH | U.S. CPI currently | N/A | % y/y | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | FORECAST_CONFIDENCE_BANDS | Creates widening illustrative bands around the forecast baseline. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If no latest observation exists, generateForecast returns an empty array. | Calculated internally as max(abs(trend) * step + abs(baseline) * 0.04, 0.4); not displayed directly. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Forecast date | FORECAST_DATE | U.S. CPI currently | N/A | date | monthly | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | FORECAST_NEXT_DATE | Advances dates according to the input date format. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If no latest observation exists, generateForecast returns an empty array and nextDate is not called. | Generated by nextDate() for monthly, quarterly, or annual series. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Oil shock scenario card | OIL_SHOCK_SCENARIO | Global concept; U.S. CPI forecast page | N/A | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | FORECASTING_SCENARIO_SHOCKS_UNDEFINED | The Forecasting Lab displays scenario cards, but no numeric shock adjustment formula is implemented. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. The page displays '+ inflation' but no numeric shock transformation was found. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Dollar shock scenario card | DOLLAR_SHOCK_SCENARIO | Global concept; U.S. CPI forecast page | N/A | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | FORECASTING_SCENARIO_SHOCKS_UNDEFINED | The Forecasting Lab displays scenario cards, but no numeric shock adjustment formula is implemented. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. The page displays '+ external risk' but no numeric shock transformation was found. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Rate shock scenario card | RATE_SHOCK_SCENARIO | Global concept; U.S. CPI forecast page | N/A | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | FORECASTING_SCENARIO_SHOCKS_UNDEFINED | The Forecasting Lab displays scenario cards, but no numeric shock adjustment formula is implemented. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. The page displays '+ tightness' but no numeric shock transformation was found. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Fiscal shock scenario card | FISCAL_SHOCK_SCENARIO | Global concept; U.S. CPI forecast page | N/A | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | FORECASTING_SCENARIO_SHOCKS_UNDEFINED | The Forecasting Lab displays scenario cards, but no numeric shock adjustment formula is implemented. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. The page displays '+ debt risk' but no numeric shock transformation was found. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Credit shock scenario card | CREDIT_SHOCK_SCENARIO | Global concept; U.S. CPI forecast page | N/A | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | FORECASTING_SCENARIO_SHOCKS_UNDEFINED | The Forecasting Lab displays scenario cards, but no numeric shock adjustment formula is implemented. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. The page displays '+ spreads' but no numeric shock transformation was found. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Commodity pass-through context | COMMODITY_PASS_THROUGH_CONTEXT | U.S. highlighted | N/A | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | COMMODITY_PASS_THROUGH_UNDEFINED | The UI describes commodity shocks feeding inflation, but no standalone pass-through formula is implemented. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. | Not explicitly defined in the current codebase. The UI describes pass-through, but no standalone pass-through indicator or formula is defined. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Top inflation risk ranking | TOP_INFLATION_RISK_RANKING | Global country ranking | N/A | rank/order | mixed | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | RANKING_RULES | Ranks countries by the risk bucket most relevant to the page or indicator. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If a tracker score is undefined, sort comparison uses 0 via (score ?? 0). | Countries sorted by inflationPressure score. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Top fiscal stress ranking | TOP_FISCAL_STRESS_RANKING | Global country ranking | N/A | rank/order | mixed | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | RANKING_RULES | Ranks countries by the risk bucket most relevant to the page or indicator. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If a tracker score is undefined, sort comparison uses 0 via (score ?? 0). | Countries sorted by fiscalStress score. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Top external vulnerability ranking | TOP_EXTERNAL_VULNERABILITY_RANKING | Global country ranking | N/A | rank/order | mixed | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | RANKING_RULES | Ranks countries by the risk bucket most relevant to the page or indicator. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If a tracker score is undefined, sort comparison uses 0 via (score ?? 0). | Countries sorted by externalVulnerability score. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Monetary tightness ranking | MONETARY_TIGHTNESS_RANKING | Global country ranking | N/A | rank/order | mixed | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | RANKING_RULES | Ranks countries by the risk bucket most relevant to the page or indicator. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If a tracker score is undefined, sort comparison uses 0 via (score ?? 0). | Tracker rows for POLICY_RATE sort countries by monetaryTightness score. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |
| Credit stress ranking | CREDIT_STRESS_RANKING | Global country ranking | N/A | rank/order | mixed | N/A | Application calculation engine | demo | src/lib/format.ts, src/lib/scoring.ts, src/lib/forecasting.ts, and page-level calculations | N/A | RANKING_RULES | Ranks countries by the risk bucket most relevant to the page or indicator. | demo | 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| If a tracker score is undefined, sort comparison uses 0 via (score ?? 0). | Tracker rows for CREDIT_GROWTH sort countries by creditStress score. Value is not directly materialized as a numeric audit record in the current codebase. |