Global Macro Outlook AI

Macro intelligence MVP

Institutional-style macro dashboard for research and education.

demoCountry

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Preparing data, scores, charts, and outlook text.

Experimental

Forecasting lab

Simple baseline scenarios for research triage. The MVP uses naive, moving-average, and linear-trend forecasts and does not claim institutional-grade precision.

Live data are fetched from external sources. Demo and fallback data are illustrative or backup values and should be verified before research or investment use.

Oil shock

+ inflation

Raises pass-through pressure.

Application calculation enginedemo2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00calculatedAudit Sources Formula

Dollar shock

+ external risk

FX depreciation scenario.

Application calculation enginedemo2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00calculatedAudit Sources Formula

Rate shock

+ tightness

Higher real-rate scenario.

Application calculation enginedemo2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00calculatedAudit Sources Formula

Fiscal shock

+ debt risk

Deficit and r-g stress.

Application calculation enginedemo2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00calculatedAudit Sources Formula

Credit shock

+ spreads

Stress score scenario.

Application calculation enginedemo2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00calculatedAudit Sources Formula

Forecast reliability: these are illustrative baselines, not validated forecasts or investment signals. Backtested: no. Sample period: 1980 to 2031. Illustrative baseline only. No backtesting or statistical forecast validation is available yet.

Moving-average CPI forecast

Application calculation enginedemo2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00calculatedAudit Sources Formula

Application calculation enginedemo2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00calculatedAudit Sources Formula

Latest forecast baseline: 2.2%.

Method: movingAverage; last observation: 2031; investment-use allowed: no.

Linear-trend forecast

Application calculation enginedemo2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00calculatedAudit Sources Formula

Application calculation enginedemo2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00calculatedAudit Sources Formula

Method: linearTrend; backtested: no; Illustrative baseline only. No backtesting or statistical forecast validation is available yet.

Last observation carried forward

Application calculation enginedemo2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00calculatedAudit Sources Formula

Application calculation enginedemo2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00calculatedAudit Sources Formula

Method: last; backtested: no; Illustrative baseline only. No backtesting or statistical forecast validation is available yet.

Research disclaimer: This dashboard is a research prototype and is not investment, financial, legal, tax, or trading advice. It is not an official forecast source. Live, demo, and fallback data may be mixed, and users must verify all values against official sources before using them for research, reporting, or decisions. Risk scores are rule-based model outputs and may be incomplete, stale, wrong, or unsuitable for any specific purpose.