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Preparing data, scores, charts, and outlook text.
Global Macro Outlook AI
Macro intelligence MVP
Loading macro dashboard...
Preparing data, scores, charts, and outlook text.
Transparency
Every dashboard element carries a source label, freshness timestamp, frequency, and standardized data status. API keys are read server-side only.
Live data are fetched from external sources. Demo and fallback data are illustrative or backup values and should be verified before research or investment use.
live
Live data loaded from an external source.
partial-live
Some displayed or scored values loaded from live sources while others use labelled demo or fallback data.
demo
Illustrative demo data loaded from the local fallback dataset.
fallback
Backup values are being used because the preferred live source was not available.
stale
A live or selected value is older than the freshness rule for its frequency.
missing
The expected value or observation is missing.
invalid
The value exists but failed a validation rule.
unconfigured
The source requires configuration, such as a server-side environment variable, that is not currently available.
error
The source or calculation returned an unexpected error.
degraded
The source is reachable or configured only partially, so demo or fallback values are active.
unavailable
No usable adapter, mapping, key, or fallback is available for this source.
mapping-error
The source is reachable, but the requested indicator, country, or URL mapping is not valid yet.
parser-error
The source returned a response, but the app could not parse it into observations.
network-error
The live request failed because of a network, timeout, or connectivity error.
blocked
The remote source blocked the server request, so demo fallback is active.
Demo data fallback
Global Macro Outlook AI
Safe local fallback used whenever a live adapter is unavailable, blocked, not mapped, or missing credentials.
Application calculation engine
Global Macro Outlook AI
Calculated indicators are derived from app code and documented in the formula registry.
Country metadata registry
Global Macro Outlook AI
Static country labels, regions, currencies, central banks, inflation targets, and commodity exposure classes.
Adapter health registry
Global Macro Outlook AI
Runtime source-health metadata displayed on the Data Sources page.
Dashboard ranking engine
Global Macro Outlook AI
Ranks countries by calculated risk-score outputs already documented in the formula registry.
Demo market snapshot
Global Macro Outlook AI
Labelled fallback source for dashboard market tiles when FRED live market series are unavailable, unmapped, or missing credentials.
OpenAI Responses API
OpenAI
Optional AI report generation. The app must never expose the key to the browser or exports.
World Bank API
World Bank
Primary no-key annual international macro source where World Bank series mappings exist.
FRED API
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Preferred U.S. source for high-frequency macro-financial and market proxy series when FRED_API_KEY is configured.
BLS API
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. CPI, unemployment, and wage proxy source when BLS_API_KEY is configured.
BEA API
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
BEA NIPA real GDP growth mapping is available when BEA_API_KEY is configured.
EIA API
U.S. Energy Information Administration
EIA WTI crude oil and Henry Hub natural gas mappings are available when EIA_API_KEY is configured.
Bank of Canada Valet API
Bank of Canada
No-key source used for Canadian FX and rate-adjacent series where mapped.
Statistics Canada WDS
Statistics Canada
No-key vector adapter exists. Exact official vector IDs must be mapped before a Canadian indicator can load live from WDS.
ECB / Eurostat API
European Central Bank and Eurostat
No-key SDMX adapter exists. Complete ECB/Eurostat series keys must be mapped before these indicators can load live from the regional source.
IMF DataMapper API
International Monetary Fund
Optional no-key DataMapper source. Some server environments return HTTP 403, in which case demo fallback remains active.
OECD Data Explorer Developer API
OECD
No-key source using copied OECD Data Explorer Developer API URLs in src/lib/data/oecd-mappings.ts.
BIS Statistics API
Bank for International Settlements
No-key BIS SDMX source. Current adapter maps policy-rate dataflow coverage where available; credit, NPL, and household-debt keys remain explicit mapping tasks.
WID.world
World Inequality Database
Candidate source for top income shares and wealth inequality. Exact variable, percentile, population, and income/wealth concept must be verified before live use.
UNDP Human Development Reports
United Nations Development Programme
Candidate source for HDI and inequality-adjusted HDI. Live endpoint or bulk-file ingestion is not integrated yet.
National statistics agencies
National statistical agencies
Placeholder registry entry for country-specific inequality and housing metrics that require national-source mapping.
Scenario simulator
Global Macro Outlook AI
Illustrative user-defined scenario source. Overrides are not observed live data and never replace baseline observations.
Official central bank speech pages
Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan
Phase 5 uses safe speech fixtures by default. Production should add respectful official-source ingestion and durable storage.
Climate risk placeholder
Not explicitly mapped yet
Display-only placeholder. No climate metric is treated as live until a verified source and license are integrated.
| Source | Status | Mode | Frequency | Live metadata | Quality warnings | Coverage | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demo data | demo | demo | mixed | Status detail: demo Indicator: N/A Country: N/A Source name: Demo data Auth mode: none Credential configured: N/A Env var: N/A Docs: N/A Endpoint: src/lib/demo-data.ts Developer data URL: Example data URL: Series: local demo cache Date: 2026-05 Unit: mixed Data status: demo HTTP status: N/A Content type: N/A Detected headers: N/A Latest observation: N/A Parser error: N/A Fallback reason: N/A Last updated: 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| All MVP countries and core indicators | Safe deterministic fallback data is loaded locally. This source is always available. Last live check: 2026-06-11T17:36:00-04:00 |
| FRED API | live | live | mixed | Status detail: live Indicator: N/A Country: N/A Source name: FRED API Auth mode: server-only Credential configured: yes Env var: FRED_API_KEY Docs: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/ Endpoint: Server-side credentialed endpoint. Configure FRED_API_KEY; raw keyed request URLs are not public metadata. Developer data URL: Example data URL: Series: FEDFUNDS Date: N/A Unit: % Data status: live HTTP status: N/A Content type: N/A Detected headers: N/A Latest observation: N/A Parser error: N/A Fallback reason: N/A Last updated: 2026-06-17T20:45:05.680Z |
| U.S. macro-financial indicators | FRED_API_KEY is configured and the live API check passed. Last live check: 2026-06-17T20:45:05.680Z |
| BLS API | live | live | monthly | Status detail: live Indicator: N/A Country: N/A Source name: BLS API Auth mode: server-only Credential configured: yes Env var: BLS_API_KEY Docs: https://www.bls.gov/developers/ Endpoint: Server-side credentialed endpoint. Configure BLS_API_KEY; raw keyed request URLs are not public metadata. Developer data URL: Example data URL: Series: LNS14000000 Date: N/A Unit: % Data status: live HTTP status: N/A Content type: N/A Detected headers: N/A Latest observation: N/A Parser error: N/A Fallback reason: N/A Last updated: 2026-06-17T20:45:05.681Z |
| U.S. CPI, unemployment, and wage proxies | BLS_API_KEY is configured and the live API check passed. Last live check: 2026-06-17T20:45:05.681Z |
| World Bank API | live | live | annual | Status detail: live Indicator: N/A Country: N/A Source name: World Bank API Auth mode: none Credential configured: N/A Env var: N/A Docs: https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/topics/125589-developer-information Endpoint: https://api.worldbank.org/v2/country/USA/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?format=json&per_page=80 Developer data URL: Example data URL: Series: NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG Date: 2024 Unit: % y/y Data status: live HTTP status: HTTP 200 Content type: application/json;charset=utf-8 Detected headers: N/A Latest observation: 2024 = 2.79300127716779 % y/y Parser error: N/A Fallback reason: N/A Last updated: 2026-06-17T20:45:05.681Z | passes checks | No-key global annual macro indicators for MVP countries where World Bank coverage exists | Live World Bank API data loaded and parsed. Demo data is still available as fallback. Last live check: 2026-06-17T20:45:05.681Z Response preview: [{"page":1,"pages":1,"per_page":80,"total":66,"sourceid":"2","lastupdated":"2026-04-08"},[{"indicator":{"id":"NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG","value":"GDP growth (annual %)"},"country":{"id":"US","value":"United States"},"countryiso3code":"USA","date":"2025","value":null,"unit":"","obs_status":"","decimal":1},{"indicator":{"id":"NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG","value":"GDP growth (annual %)"},"country":{"id":"US","value":"United States"},"countryiso3code":"USA","date":"2024","value":2.79300127716779,"unit":"","obs_status |
| OECD Data | mapping-error | demo | mixed | Status detail: mapping-error Indicator: Headline CPI inflation Country: United States Source name: OECD Data Explorer Developer API Auth mode: none Credential configured: N/A Env var: N/A Docs: https://gitlab.com/sis-cc/.stat-suite/dotstatsuite-core-sdmxri/-/wikis/OECD-SDMX-REST-API Endpoint: https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL,1.0/USA.M.N.CPI.PA._T.N.GY?startPeriod=2025-05&dimensionAtObservation=AllDimensions&format=csvfilewithlabels Developer data URL: https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL,1.0/USA.M.N.CPI.PA._T.N.GY?startPeriod=2025-05&dimensionAtObservation=AllDimensions&format=csvfilewithlabels Example data URL: https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_RHPI_TARGET@DF_RHPI_TARGET,1.0/COU.USA.M.RHPI...GY..?startPeriod=0001-04&dimensionAtObservation=AllDimensions&format=csvfilewithlabels Series: OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PRICES@DF_PRICES_ALL/USA.M.N.CPI.PA._T.N.GY Date: Unit: % y/y Data status: demo HTTP status: HTTP 429 Too Many Requests Content type: text/plain Detected headers: N/A Latest observation: N/A Parser error: N/A Fallback reason: OECD API reachable, but Headline CPI inflation URL returned HTTP 429 Too Many Requests. Selected series URL may be invalid. Please copy a fresh OECD Developer API Flat Data query URL for Headline CPI inflation: OECD Data Explorer -> select indicator filters -> Developer API -> Flat -> Copy code. Last updated: 2026-06-17T20:45:06.040Z |
| No-key OECD Data Explorer SDMX indicators configured by copied Developer API data URLs | OECD API reachable, but Headline CPI inflation URL returned HTTP 429 Too Many Requests. Selected series URL may be invalid. Please copy a fresh OECD Developer API Flat Data query URL for Headline CPI inflation: OECD Data Explorer -> select indicator filters -> Developer API -> Flat -> Copy code. Response preview: You have exceeded the number of requests currently permitted in the OECD Data API. Please contact us through the OECD Data Explorer (https://data-explorer.oecd.org) feedback form (indicating your IP address) to request more details or exceptions.
|
| Bank of Canada Valet API | live | live | daily | Status detail: live Indicator: N/A Country: N/A Source name: Bank of Canada Valet API Auth mode: none Credential configured: N/A Env var: N/A Docs: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/docs Endpoint: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/valet/observations/FXUSDCAD/json?recent=120 Developer data URL: Example data URL: Series: FXUSDCAD Date: 2026-06-17 Unit: CAD per USD Data status: live HTTP status: HTTP 200 Content type: application/json; charset=utf-8 Detected headers: N/A Latest observation: 2026-06-17 = 1.4034 CAD per USD Parser error: N/A Fallback reason: N/A Last updated: 2026-06-17T20:45:05.809Z | passes checks | Canadian exchange rates and selected Bank of Canada financial series | Live Bank of Canada Valet data loaded and parsed. Demo fallback remains available. Last live check: 2026-06-17T20:45:05.809Z Response preview: { "terms": { "url": "https://www.bankofcanada.ca/terms/" }, "seriesDetail": { "FXUSDCAD": { "label": "USD/CAD", "description": "Daily average exchange rate: daily value of the US dollar expressed in Canadian dollars, for 1 unit of US dollar", "dimension": { "key": "d", "name": "Date" } } }, "observations": [ { "d": "2026-06-17", "FXUSDCAD": { |
| Statistics Canada WDS | live | live | mixed | Status detail: live Indicator: N/A Country: N/A Source name: Statistics Canada WDS Auth mode: none Credential configured: N/A Env var: N/A Docs: https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/developers/wds Endpoint: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/wds/rest/getCodeSets Developer data URL: Example data URL: Series: getCodeSets health check Date: N/A Unit: metadata Data status: live HTTP status: N/A Content type: N/A Detected headers: N/A Latest observation: N/A Parser error: N/A Fallback reason: N/A Last updated: 2026-06-17T20:45:06.820Z |
| No-key Statistics Canada WDS service. Indicator-specific vector mappings are not yet wired into dashboard series. | Live WDS API connected. The MVP still uses demo fallback until StatCan vector IDs are mapped per indicator. Last live check: 2026-06-17T20:45:06.820Z |
| ECB / Eurostat | live | live | mixed | Status detail: live Indicator: N/A Country: N/A Source name: ECB / Eurostat Auth mode: none Credential configured: N/A Env var: N/A Docs: https://data.ecb.europa.eu/help/api/overview Endpoint: https://data-api.ecb.europa.eu/service/data/EXR/D.USD.EUR.SP00.A?lastNObservations=1&format=jsondata Developer data URL: Example data URL: Series: EXR/D.USD.EUR.SP00.A Date: N/A Unit: EUR/USD exchange rate Data status: live HTTP status: N/A Content type: N/A Detected headers: N/A Latest observation: N/A Parser error: N/A Fallback reason: N/A Last updated: 2026-06-17T20:45:06.308Z |
| No-key ECB Data Portal live check for euro-area financial data; Eurostat can be added with dataset-specific mappings. | Live ECB API connected. Dashboard uses demo fallback until ECB/Eurostat indicator mappings are expanded. Last live check: 2026-06-17T20:45:06.308Z |
| BIS Data | live | live | monthly | Status detail: live Indicator: N/A Country: N/A Source name: BIS Data Auth mode: none Credential configured: N/A Env var: N/A Docs: https://stats.bis.org/api-doc/v2/ Endpoint: https://stats.bis.org/api/v2/data/dataflow/BIS/WS_CBPOL/1.0/M.US?format=csvfile Developer data URL: Example data URL: Series: WS_CBPOL/M.US Date: 2026-05 Unit: % Data status: live HTTP status: HTTP 200 Content type: text/csv;charset=UTF-8 Detected headers: FREQ, REF_AREA, UNIT_MEASURE, UNIT_MULT, TIME_FORMAT, COMPILATION, DECIMALS, SOURCE_REF, SUPP_INFO_BREAKS, TITLE, TIME_PERIOD, OBS_VALUE, OBS_STATUS, OBS_CONF, OBS_PRE_BREAK Latest observation: 2026-05 = 3.625 % Parser error: N/A Fallback reason: N/A Last updated: 2026-06-17T20:45:05.880Z | passes checks | No-key BIS statistics API policy-rate series where BIS coverage exists | Live BIS data loaded and parsed. Demo fallback remains available. Last live check: 2026-06-17T20:45:05.880Z Response preview: FREQ,REF_AREA,UNIT_MEASURE,UNIT_MULT,TIME_FORMAT,COMPILATION,DECIMALS,SOURCE_REF,SUPP_INFO_BREAKS,TITLE,TIME_PERIOD,OBS_VALUE,OBS_STATUS,OBS_CONF,OBS_PRE_BREAK M,US,368,0,,From 19 Dec 1985 onwards: mid-point of the Federal Reserve target rate; from 1 Jul 1954 to 18 Dec 1985: US Fed Funds effective rate.,4,US Federal Reserve System,, Central bank policy rates - United States - Monthly - End of period,1954-07,0.25,A,F, M,US,368,0,,From 19 Dec 1985 onwards: mid-point of the Federal Reserve target r |
| IMF Data | live | live | annual | Status detail: live Indicator: Real GDP growth Country: USA Source name: IMF DataMapper API Auth mode: none Credential configured: N/A Env var: N/A Docs: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/api/help Endpoint: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/api/v1/NGDP_RPCH/USA Developer data URL: Example data URL: Series: NGDP_RPCH Date: 2031 Unit: % y/y Data status: live HTTP status: HTTP 200 Content type: application/json Detected headers: N/A Latest observation: 2031 = 1.8 % y/y Parser error: N/A Fallback reason: N/A Last updated: 2026-06-17T20:45:06.412Z | passes checks | No-key IMF DataMapper indicators for GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and current account where covered | Live IMF DataMapper API loaded and parsed. Demo fallback remains available. Last live check: 2026-06-17T20:45:06.412Z
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| BEA API | live | live | quarterly | Status detail: live Indicator: N/A Country: N/A Source name: BEA API Auth mode: server-only Credential configured: yes Env var: BEA_API_KEY Docs: https://apps.bea.gov/api/signup/ Endpoint: Server-side credentialed endpoint. Configure BEA_API_KEY; raw keyed request URLs are not public metadata. Developer data URL: Example data URL: Series: NIPA/T10101/L1/Q Date: N/A Unit: % annualized q/q Data status: live HTTP status: N/A Content type: N/A Detected headers: N/A Latest observation: N/A Parser error: N/A Fallback reason: N/A Last updated: 2026-06-17T20:45:05.682Z |
| U.S. GDP and national accounts | BEA_API_KEY is configured and the live API check passed. Last live check: 2026-06-17T20:45:05.682Z |
| EIA API | live | live | mixed | Status detail: live Indicator: N/A Country: N/A Source name: EIA API Auth mode: server-only Credential configured: yes Env var: EIA_API_KEY Docs: https://www.eia.gov/opendata/ Endpoint: Server-side credentialed endpoint. Configure EIA_API_KEY; raw keyed request URLs are not public metadata. Developer data URL: Example data URL: Series: RWTC Date: N/A Unit: USD/bbl Data status: live HTTP status: N/A Content type: N/A Detected headers: N/A Latest observation: N/A Parser error: N/A Fallback reason: N/A Last updated: 2026-06-17T20:45:05.682Z |
| Energy and commodity indicators | EIA_API_KEY is configured and the live API check passed. Last live check: 2026-06-17T20:45:05.682Z |
Real GDP growth
growth - annual - % y/y
Real output growth, used as the main growth momentum anchor.
Source: World Bank / national sources
Headline CPI inflation
inflation - monthly - % y/y
Headline consumer price inflation.
Source: BLS, FRED, World Bank, demo cache
Unemployment rate
labor - monthly - %
Labor-market slack indicator.
Source: BLS, FRED, World Bank, demo cache
Policy rate
monetary - monthly - %
Primary short-term central bank policy rate.
Source: Central banks, FRED, demo cache
10-year government yield
market - monthly - %
Long-term sovereign interest-rate signal.
Source: FRED, market data, demo cache
Government debt-to-GDP
fiscal - annual - % of GDP
General government debt burden.
Source: World Bank / IMF / demo cache
Fiscal balance
fiscal - annual - % of GDP
Government budget balance as a share of GDP.
Source: IMF / World Bank / demo cache
Current account balance
external - annual - % of GDP
External funding balance.
Source: World Bank / IMF / demo cache
FX rate versus USD
external - monthly - index
Currency level indexed to 100 at the start of the demo window.
Source: Central banks / market data / demo cache
Crude oil
commodity - monthly - USD/bbl
Oil price proxy used for energy shock analysis.
Source: EIA / demo cache
Natural gas
commodity - monthly - index
Natural gas price proxy.
Source: EIA / demo cache
Copper
commodity - monthly - index
Industrial metals cycle proxy.
Source: Market data / demo cache
Food commodity index
commodity - monthly - index
Food input cost pressure proxy.
Source: World Bank pink sheet / demo cache
Wage growth
labor - monthly - % y/y
Nominal wage growth proxy.
Source: BLS / national sources / demo cache
Private credit growth
credit - quarterly - % y/y
Credit impulse and leverage-cycle proxy.
Source: BIS / national sources / demo cache
Non-performing loans
credit - annual - % of loans
Banking-system asset-quality proxy.
Source: World Bank / demo cache
FX reserves
external - monthly - index
Foreign-exchange reserve adequacy proxy.
Source: IMF / national sources / demo cache
External debt
external - annual - % of GDP
External liability burden proxy.
Source: World Bank / demo cache
Gini coefficient
structural - annual - index
Income inequality index from official survey-based sources where available.
Source: World Bank / OECD / fallback metadata
Poverty rate
structural - annual - % of population
National poverty headcount ratio where official estimates are available.
Source: World Bank / OECD / fallback metadata
Top 1% income share
structural - annual - % of income
Top income share placeholder pending verified WID.world series mapping.
Source: WID.world placeholder / fallback metadata
Top 10% income share
structural - annual - % of income
Top income share placeholder pending verified WID.world series mapping.
Source: WID.world placeholder / fallback metadata
Wealth inequality
structural - annual - Not explicitly defined in the current codebase.
Wealth inequality placeholder pending verified concept and series mapping.
Source: WID.world placeholder / fallback metadata
Labour share
structural - annual - % of income
Labour share placeholder pending verified source mapping.
Source: OECD / national accounts placeholder
Median income
structural - annual - Not explicitly defined in the current codebase.
Median income placeholder pending concept, currency, and source mapping.
Source: OECD / national sources placeholder
Real wage growth
labor - annual - % y/y
Real wage growth placeholder pending verified wage and deflator concept.
Source: OECD / BLS / national sources placeholder
Household debt
credit - quarterly - % of GDP or disposable income
Household-sector debt placeholder pending verified debt concept and series key.
Source: BIS / OECD placeholder
Housing affordability
structural - quarterly - index or ratio
Housing affordability placeholder pending exact affordability metric.
Source: OECD / national sources placeholder
Human Development Index
structural - annual - 0-1 index
Human Development Index placeholder pending verified UNDP HDR data integration.
Source: UNDP HDR placeholder
Inequality-adjusted HDI
structural - annual - 0-1 index
Inequality-adjusted HDI placeholder pending verified UNDP HDR data integration.
Source: UNDP HDR placeholder