Fiscal sustainability
Sovereign debt and deficit risk
Assesses debt-to-GDP, fiscal balance, interest-rate pressure, nominal growth, and simple debt-dynamics arithmetic.
Live data are fetched from external sources. Demo and fallback data are illustrative or backup values and should be verified before research or investment use.
Nominal GDP growth
5.0%
Growth plus inflation proxy.
The MVP uses the prompt-specified identity: change in debt ratio = (interest rate - nominal growth rate) x debt ratio - primary balance. Where primary balance is unavailable, the fiscal balance proxy is used and clearly treated as an approximation.
Countries ranked by fiscal stress
| Country | Latest | Risk score | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan East Asia | 254.1% | 100High | Fiscal stress |
| United Kingdom Europe | 131.1% | 59.5Elevated | Recession risk |
| Brazil Latin America | 81.9% | 55.6Elevated | Disinflationary growth |
| Mexico Latin America | 49.6% | 52.6Watch | Disinflationary growth |
| United States North America | 118.0% | 44.3Watch | Disinflationary growth |
| Euro Area Europe | 88.9% | 37.7Watch | Slowdown |
| Canada North America | 64.9% | 36.6Watch | Disinflationary growth |
| China East Asia | 82.5% | 29.5Low | Expansion |
| Germany Europe | 65.4% | 29.3Low | Slowdown |
| India South Asia | 80.5% | 28.6Low | Expansion |
Research disclaimer: This dashboard is a research prototype and is not investment, financial, legal, tax, or trading advice. It is not an official forecast source. Live, demo, and fallback data may be mixed, and users must verify all values against official sources before using them for research, reporting, or decisions. Risk scores are rule-based model outputs and may be incomplete, stale, wrong, or unsuitable for any specific purpose.